Friday, July 17, 2009

The Making Of An NFL Pointspread And How To Profit From It

What Is A Pointspread?

A pointspread is simply the amount of points given to an inferior team(underdog) to make it equal to the superior team (favorite). This is needed so that for gambling purposes it will make it an "even" bet. You either take the better team and have to lay the points or take the worse team and receive the points.

You may see the following in the newspaper or online:

Favorite Spread Underdog
NY GIANTS 7 Oakland

In this example, the NY Giants are 7 point favorites over the Oakland Raiders. This means you can either bet the Giants and give 7 points and hope the Giants win by eight or more. Or you can take the Raiders and hope the Raiders either win or lose by 7 or less.

The reason this is crucial in understanding how using sophisticated computer analysis can be used to determine if the spread is correct is that the line may in fact have a public perception bias in it!

Yes, the people responsible for making the lines out in Las Vegas, must determine what they think the public thinks about the matchup! You heard this right, you may have thought they were using some complicated formulas or power ratings (and they do to some extent)

And here is the key to how we can succeed, the public is usually WRONG about how much one team is better then the other! So if we design systems that can evaluate the pointspreads WITHOUT the publics bias, then we can identify the games where the spreads are not right!

This is exactly what my service does at, my systems will do this work for us, and uncover the games that we have an advantage betting.

The systems have been successful since 1998, and I look forward to another successful 2009,
come by and see it work for yourself FREE NFL Picks and FREE NBA Picks are available!

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