Monday Night Football Pick Packers @ Vikings

Pointspreadpros.com Monday Night Football Analysis

Sundays Recap:

We went (2-1) on our 10* Plays, with an easy 35-0 winner on San Francisco, and a straight up winner on Denver. Our loser came on the Chargers, as they couldn't come back from a 28 point deficit.

Monday Night Analysis

In this game, everyone seems to be on the Vikings, thinking that Brett will get his revenge. And this might be true. But a better reason to like the Vikings in this game, is the matchup between the defensive line of Minnesota with the shaky offensive line of Green Bay.

We all saw what Ogungleye did by himself a few weeks ago, getting 3 sacks and causing havoc on numerous plays. And the Vikings have a better pass rush then the Bears!. On the other side of the ball, the Packers have been vulnerable to the run and now will face the best back in the league in Adrian Petersen.

All this being said, the line has risen from 3.5 to 4.5 in some places, and this number is just too much to lay in what should be a hotly contested game. Sometimes you just need to say "Hey, there is no definitive side here enough to warrant wagering my hard earned money. Remember, there will be many more opportunities next week.

Good money management is the key to being successful wagering on sports, and this is a game where you are better off just watching it.

One of the NEW systems I have written for this year, trys to determine the number of predicted successful plays versus the predicted negative plays and in this matchup the system is saying that there is a higher bias toward negative plays. This same system for Sunday, had told me the Bears/Lions was going to bias greatly to BIG plays, and the over/under was only 39.5. I played the OVER myself and was rewarded by halftime.

The same system, had the bias to GOOD plays in last nights Steelers/Chargers game, and that went over easily as well. This system is new for this year, so I am waiting to see how well it does for the year before I incorporate it into plays for my members.

So if you want a little action on this game, how about going "small" on UNDER 47.

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Best of luck to us!

Panthers @ Cowboys Monday Night Football Pick

At Pointspreadpros.com we use computer analysis to churn through boxscore, play by play and drive chart data to try and determine which teams are likely to cover the spread.

In this matchup, the stats are telling us that the Cowboys will move the ball very effectively on Carolina, especially on first down. Having success on first down will likely lead to Dallas being able to control the ball and do a lot of things well offensively.

That being said, Dallas has shown to have some problems on the defensive side of the ball, especially in pass coverage.

Carolina has some playmakers like Steve Smith who should see some success tonight, especially since we see Dallas getting up on Carolina early, which will force the Panthers to throw the ball.

This game screams to be a high scoring entertaining affair, with a lot of big plays. So our reccommendation is on the OVER 48 tonight.

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Best of luck!
PointspreadPros.com

Monday Night Football Pick Chargers at Raiders

In my many years of making NFL picks at Pointspreadpros.com, experience has told me, that sometimes the picks that make you feel the most "uncomfortable" are the ones that you actually have the greatest success with.

And the Raiders +10 (current line) is just such a pick. Nobody is giving the Silver and Black any chance against the powerful Chargers. And why would they? The Raiders and their organization have been a laughing stock for the past few years.

So yes, this a very uncomfortable pick to say the least. Betting on the Raiders is the same feeling as you get when coming down from the very top of a giant ferris wheel!... That nauseous feeling in the pit of your stomach.

But our computer systems see some value here. The Raiders don't do a lot well but they can run the ball pretty effectively. And the Chargers last year showed vulnerability there. The Raiders also have one of the best cover corners in the league (Assumwaugh). And this should help them take away San Diego's best receiver.

Couple this fact, with it being the week 1 home opener, on national TV, if the Raiders can't put up a good show for this, then they are cooked for the rest of the season.

So play on the Raiders +10 and say a "Hail Mary"

Thursday Night NFL Opener (Titans at Steelers)

Using data to make predictions is always a problem in the first few weeks of the NFL season as some teams have made major changes to their personnel. But we will try and forecast as best we can, just go easy until week 4.

Tonight our computer systems feel that the Steelers are a bit over priced at 6. The line is inflated due to the publics perception that the Steelers are home and the Super Bowl champs.

The raw data says this will be a very close hard hitting game, something like 17-13.

So we will suggest a small wager on Tennessee +6.

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The Brett Favre Saga Continues...

Nobody likes watching Brett Favre as much as yours truly, and I was hoping he was going to lace it up one more time.

But what he has done by signing late with the Vikings, is show me how self centered this guy truly is. All his life, I am sure he has felt more privileged and more a sense of entitledment then the rest of us average Joe's. But in signing late, all he has done is put the Vikings behind the eight ball.

It's all about Brett... He didn't want the grind of training camp so he decides to pull this crap. And I hold the Vikings partly responsible for giving in, even though suppoesdly "the door was closed" (from Brad Childress)

It just shows the kids out there, who idolize these athletes, that if you are THAT GOOD, then the rules don't apply.

If Brett's reasoning for not going through training camp is that his body can't take it AND 16 games, then I say your ready to retire. If you are THAT close to not being able to go, then just go.

Heres hoping that Green Bay kicks the crap out of the Vikings and Favre (providing he is still even healthy enough to play) when Minnesota travels to Lambeau field.

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My Take On Goodell's Handling Of Michael Vick

By James A McGuiness of Pointspreadpros.com

Roger, get over yourself. We all get it. You are the man, you are all powerful and a no nonsense commissioner.

But to punish Michael Vick and more importantly the fans that watch him another 6 weeks is down right arrogant.

Punishing Vick for another 6 weeks serves only one purpose, yours. To show everyone that you are the end all be all, very "god like" don't you think? Afterall, the American justice system has already sentneced the man to 24 months, do you think another 6 weeks makes any difference?

Cmon Roger, the man has done his time, has shown remorse and people should be able to move on after doing their pennace.

All you are doing is punishing the fans who want to watch this marvelous athlete perform.

Thanks for nothing Roger, now we can all wait until week 7 to see one of the best athletes in sports.

Successful Sports Betting Begins With A Different Mindset

I hear this all the time "Betting on football is a flip of the coin proposition". "Nobody can beat the spread in the long run".

And for the average bettor, they may seem to be very valid statements. Why? Because the average bettor does not put in the proper time and effort it takes to become successful.

Most of them think they are handicapping NFL games by picking up their local newspaper, seeing how the teams performed in the prior week and then try to make an educated guess on what should happen the next week!

If it was that easy, then we could all do it and not have to work.

Like anything in life, if you want to be successful then it is going to take passion and intensity to make it happen. And I can tell you that I have poured thousands of hours into making my computer systems in both the NFL and NBA.

First I needed to analyze past games and see what variables seemed to effect the spreads. Then I needed to write the systems that analyzed the data. Then I needed to test the programs on many seasons of data to see if they worked. Then I would go back and "tweak" the systems to try and improve on the performance. And on and on this went until I have now come up with what I think is an arsenal of analytical programs that can help us beat the NFL spreads and NBA spreads.

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Remember, it is nothing different then investing your money in the stock market. Whether you are giving your money to a fund manager that can give you a 15% ROI or you take that same money and invest it in a computer system that can return 15% ROI. The point is, if it is a proven system, you are not gambling anymore.

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How To Choose A Handicapping Service

In my business of handicapping NFL football picks and NBA basketball picks there are a lot of services out there that you could choose to help you become successful.



But unfortunately, most of these "services" are more deceptive advertisers with little substance behind their picks.



Before throwing your hard earned money to any handicapping service, these are the things you need to know:

1. Does the handicapping service show you ALL their picks for the entire season or do they only tell you about their "hot" streaks? If the service is any good then they won't mind showing you ALL the picks they have made.


2. Are their picks monitored by any reputable Monitoring Sites?


3. Have they participated in any handicapping contests?


4. Have they shown consistency from year to year?


5. Do they make any claims at 70% or better winning percentage? If they do, then run for the hills.


6. What does their service bring to the table? Another words, find out what methods they use to make their picks. If they rely on "trends", again head for the door. Trends are only tell you what happened in the past, and have no bearing on forecasting the future. If trends really worked, none of us would need to work to make a living!

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The Making Of An NFL Pointspread And How To Profit From It

What Is A Pointspread?

A pointspread is simply the amount of points given to an inferior team(underdog) to make it equal to the superior team (favorite). This is needed so that for gambling purposes it will make it an "even" bet. You either take the better team and have to lay the points or take the worse team and receive the points.

You may see the following in the newspaper or online:

Favorite Spread Underdog
NY GIANTS 7 Oakland

In this example, the NY Giants are 7 point favorites over the Oakland Raiders. This means you can either bet the Giants and give 7 points and hope the Giants win by eight or more. Or you can take the Raiders and hope the Raiders either win or lose by 7 or less.

The reason this is crucial in understanding how using sophisticated computer analysis can be used to determine if the spread is correct is that the line may in fact have a public perception bias in it!

Yes, the people responsible for making the lines out in Las Vegas, must determine what they think the public thinks about the matchup! You heard this right, you may have thought they were using some complicated formulas or power ratings (and they do to some extent)

And here is the key to how we can succeed, the public is usually WRONG about how much one team is better then the other! So if we design systems that can evaluate the pointspreads WITHOUT the publics bias, then we can identify the games where the spreads are not right!

This is exactly what my service does at Pointspreadpros.com, my systems will do this work for us, and uncover the games that we have an advantage betting.

The systems have been successful since 1998, and I look forward to another successful 2009,
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2009 NFL Draft Who Made The Grade In The AFC?

Which teams got "A's" and which teams flunked?

by James McGuiness - PointspreadPros.com

The Winners:

New England Patriots

The Patriots were getting old, and needed to add to their depth. They did so by getting four second round picks and two third rounders.

Picks: S Patrick Chung DT Ron Brace CB Darius Butler OT Sebastian Vollmer WR Brandon LB Tyrone McKenzie G Rich Ohrnberger C George Bussey DT Myron Pryor LS Jacob Ingram WR Julian Edelman DT Darryl Richard

NY Jets

The Jets got a potential starting QB in Sanchez, we shall see if he can handle the NY pressure.

Picks: QB Mark Sanchez, RB Shonn Greene G Matt Slauson

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens got themeselves an excellent OT in Oher and couple him with Jared Gaither and the Ravens have solidified their offensive line.

Picks: OT Michael Oher, DE/LB Paul Kruger CB Lardarius Webb LB Jason Phillips TE Davon Drew RB Cedric Peerman

Jacksonville Jaguars

OT Britton may come in and start right away. They still have receivers issues, with Torry Holt now their main weapon.

Picks: OT Eugene Monroe, OT Eben Britton DT Terrance Knighton CB Derek Cox WR Mike Thomas WR Jarett Dillard TE Zach Miller RB Rashad Jennings WR Tiquan Underwood

Kansas City Chiefs

Picks: DE Tyson Jackson DT Alex Magee CB Donald Washington OL Colin Brown WR Quentin Lawrence, RB Javarris Williams TE Jake O’Connell K Ryan Succop

Getting Cassel seems to be a great move, but I am a bit wary at seeing how well he will do without having the Belichick "system" behind him. Time will tell.

DE Jackson is a Richard Seymore clone, and should provide run stuffing capabilities.

The Losers:

Oakland Raiders

Picks: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey S Michael Mitchell DE Matt Shaughnessy WR Louis Murphy DE Slade Norris DE Stryker Sulak TE Brandon Myers

No big surprise here. Raiders continue to draft speedy WR's but nobody to block or open holes. When will Al Davis learn that you win with your Offensive and Defensive lines.

How To Make Money Betting NFL Football

Hi, my name is James McGuiness , owner of PointspreadPros.com. And I want to show you how you can make money betting on Pro Football using my computer systems.

My Credentials:

• Making clients money on the internet since 1998, read their testimonials
• Finished in the top 10 THREE times in the Ultimate Handicapping Challenge (NFL)
• Featured NFL Handicapper in 2008 on 94.3 Real Radio

So this year, win your NFL Office Pool Picks, and instead of owing money to your bookie, take him to the cleaners! The key is using sophisticated number crunching computer systems that give YOU the edge.

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Best of luck to all!